As Peter Thiel outlined in his lectures and summarized in the 2 by 2 matrix above the future is uncertain and determined by the actions of individuals. Influenced by our perception and willingness to take the outcome into our own hands. The ideal quadrant is in the upper left corner, the definite optimist has a plan, vision, and belief the future can be made better. And not just the future, but the future of architecture.
The indefinite optimist is long future as well, however either lacks a plan or is uncertain about the most probable outcome and thus diversifies. The definitive pessimist has a vision of the future, however one that is darker than present. And finally indefinite pessimist has negative view about future and has no idea what to do and how to fix it. Each quadrant can be exemplified by different part of the world in different period.
The optimism and determinism was most apparent in the US around the third quarter of the last century, however coming closer to today it changed to indefinite optimism. China is an example of pessimistic determinism, the stuff is getting done, but without prospects of brighter future and hope. The Europe is an example of indefinite pessimism, focused on conservation and maintaining status quo.
The same matrix is applicable to construction and architecture. Worth highlighting is especially the period over the last two decades, when architects in Europe became over-constrained by complex bureaucracy as well as increased pressure on sustainability. More constraints increase process complexity, penalize innovation and drive costs upwards.
LAW OF ACCELERATED RETURNS
Progress of technology and change is exponential. Within the next 100 years, we will not experience 100 years worth of progress, but something more akin of 20 000 years of progress if seen at today’s rate.
This was further accelerated by the systemic shock posed by the COVID pandemic. Shift to work-from home schemes, quicker adoption of communication technology and importance of innovation to conquer challenges made the companies and investors that can adapt stronger and those that cannot were sent into a death spiral. As an example from manufacturing, software, AI and machine learning, Tesla is the greatest example of a company that emerged from the pandemic stronger than ever.
Their ability to innovate as well as vertical integration allowed Tesla to scale production even during challenging times and their production numbers are rapidly expanding as it was able to deliver over 300 000 vehicles in Q1 2022, year over year improvement of over 70% while most of other automakers, especially legacy automakers, seen their production numbers slump (for example GM had 8% lower production numbers when comparing full year of 2021 and 2020).
CONVERGENCE OF TECHNOLOGY
According to research by ARK, there are 5 main innovation platforms. Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, Energy Storage, DNA Sequencing, and Blockchain Technology. Among those 5 platforms are 14 trans-formative technologies on the verge of inflection point with the cost dropping and unleashing the demand across sectors, geographies and creating synergies. ARK believes that historians will look back on this time and acknowledge it as the point when everything changed. From those, IoT, AI, Cloud Computing, 3D Printing, Robotics and Battery Technology are relevant to architecture. The question thus is what role will the architecture and construction assume among these new technologies and to what extent are we ready to capitalize on this opportunity.
THERE WAS A VISION FOR THE FUTURE OF ARCHITECTURE
In the spirit of the definitive optimism of the 60s, Archigram was a neo-futuristic architectural group based at Architectural Association in London. Among their most famous projects are Plug-in-City, The Walking City and Instant City. Archigram imagined an abundant future, and technology indistinguishable from magic. Unfortunately, their impact did not spillover from theory and vision into practice and we can only theorize what was the impact Archigram wished for.
Personally, I have a high level of conviction that many of the aforementioned technological advancements are going to take place to some degree. At the same time I hear very little discussion about the topic in architectural circles compared to investing, finance, manufacturing and software.
Architects always approached technology with caution which is a significant handicap in a world that does not wait. It is paramount to acknowledge the changes and work on solutions that can intertwine architecture with the future in order to even have the future of architecture.